⚽ Cup Predictor

2026 World Cup Prediction Stats

Final statistics from 12,163+ bracket predictions submitted to Cup Predictor

Most Predicted World Cup 2026 Champion

#1SpainSpain27%3271 picks
#2FranceFrance21%2514 picks
#3PortugalPortugal17%2100 picks
#4ArgentinaArgentina8%956 picks
#5BrazilBrazil6%777 picks
#6EnglandEngland6%738 picks
#7GermanyGermany3%370 picks
#8NetherlandsNetherlands2%246 picks
#9MoroccoMorocco1%132 picks
#10USAUSA1%94 picks

💥 Biggest R32 Upsets

#11E vs 3rd
ParaguayParaguay

Only 0.2% predicted them to win

What fans predicted:

GermanyGermany86.1%
EcuadorEcuador6.6%
Côte d'IvoireCôte d'Ivoire2.1%
#22K vs 2L
PortugalPortugal

Only 7.4% predicted them to win

What fans predicted:

CroatiaCroatia40.4%
ColombiaColombia35.2%
EnglandEngland8.9%
#31K vs 3rd
ColombiaColombia

Only 9.1% predicted them to win

What fans predicted:

PortugalPortugal85.2%
ColombiaColombia9.1%
GhanaGhana0.9%

🎯 R32 Accuracy per Match

2A vs 2B — CanadaCanada20%
1E vs 3rd — ParaguayParaguay0%
1F vs 2C — MoroccoMorocco19%
1C vs 2F — BrazilBrazil75%
1I vs 3rd — FranceFrance90%
2E vs 2I — NorwayNorway45%
1A vs 3rd — MexicoMexico56%
1L vs 3rd — EnglandEngland82%
1D vs 3rd — USAUSA31%
1G vs 3rd — BelgiumBelgium81%
2K vs 2L — PortugalPortugal7%
1H vs 2J — SpainSpain92%
1B vs 3rd — SwitzerlandSwitzerland61%
1J vs 2H — ArgentinaArgentina89%
1K vs 3rd — ColombiaColombia9%
2D vs 2G — EgyptEgypt23%

🎯 Perfect R32 Predictors

Nobody predicted all 16 perfectly — the World Cup never fails to surprise.

1740 people (14%) correctly predicted both finalists

SpainSpain
ArgentinaArgentina

From 12,163 pre-tournament brackets

1705 people (14%) also predicted all semi-final pairs

Who Got It Right?

How many fans correctly predicted each final position

Champion

SpainSpain

3,271people (27%)got it right

Runner-up

ArgentinaArgentina

2,823people (23%)got it right

3rd Place

EnglandEngland

1,749people (14%)got it right

4th Place

FranceFrance

1,092people (9%)got it right

329 people (3%) correctly predicted all four final positions

From 12,163 pre-tournament bracket predictions

Tournament Accuracy

Round of 32

49%

Round of 16

37%

Quarter-Finals

57%

Semi-Finals

35%

🥇 Most Backed Final

The finals fans predict most often

#1

FranceFrance vs PortugalPortugal

15%

1778 picks

#2

ArgentinaArgentina vs SpainSpain

✓ This is the actual final!

14%

1740 picks

#3

ArgentinaArgentina vs FranceFrance

11%

1298 picks

⚰️ The Graveyard Slot

Where fans predict each favourite to be eliminated

Brazil

Brazil

Most often eliminated in: Round of 16

47%
Germany

Germany

Most often eliminated in: Round of 32

79%
France

France

Most often eliminated in: Final

43%
England

England

Most often eliminated in: Round of 16

36%
Portugal

Portugal

Most often eliminated in: Round of 16

47%
Argentina

Argentina

Most often eliminated in: Round of 16

40%

🎯 Group Stage Accuracy

Only 2.2% predicted Cabo VerdeCabo Verde 2nd in Group H

Group A — Top 2 correct7.9%
Group B — Top 2 correct47.5%
Group C — Top 2 correct66.8%
Group D — Top 2 correct6.4%
Group E — Top 2 correct28.8%
Group F — Top 2 correct49.2%
Group G — Top 2 correct62.3%
Group H — Top 2 correct1.6%
Group I — Top 2 correct56.3%
Group J — Top 2 correct60.6%
Group K — Top 2 correct9.6%
Group L — Top 2 correct72%

💥 Biggest Upset Predictions

The real outcomes that fewest fans saw coming

#1Cabo Verde

Cabo Verde 2nd

Group H — 264 picks

2.2%

predicted

#2Uruguay

Uruguay 3rd

Group H — 899 picks

7.4%

predicted

#3South Africa

South Africa 2nd

Group A — 1,198 picks

9.8%

predicted

#4Turkey

Turkey 4th

Group D — 1,236 picks

10.2%

predicted

#5Portugal

Portugal 2nd

Group K — 1,256 picks

10.3%

predicted

🏆 Perfect Group Hunters

Fans predicted the full finishing order (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th) for each group. A "perfect group" = all 4 positions correct. How many did fans nail?

Nobody predicted all 12 groups perfectly 🎯

8/12
880.7%
7/12
6245.1%
6/12
1,56312.9%
5/12
2,40719.8%
4/12
2,57621.2%
3/12
2,19718.1%
2/12
1,45111.9%
1/12
8156.7%
0/12
4423.6%

📊 Group-by-Group Consensus

Actual standings vs. what fans predicted

A
Group A
1stMexicoMexico67.4%
2ndSouth AfricaSouth Africa9.8%
3rdSouth KoreaSouth Korea28.6%
4thCzechiaCzechia21.5%
B
Group B
1stSwitzerlandSwitzerland70.9%
2ndCanadaCanada50.3%
3rdBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina47.4%
4thQatarQatar72.4%
C
Group C
1stBrazilBrazil79.8%
2ndMoroccoMorocco67.6%
3rdScotlandScotland79%
4thHaitiHaiti91.4%
D
Group D
1stUSAUSA35.9%
2ndAustraliaAustralia13.3%
3rdParaguayParaguay36.6%
4thTurkeyTurkey10.2%
E
Group E
1stGermanyGermany88.3%
2ndCôte d'IvoireCôte d'Ivoire30.3%
3rdEcuadorEcuador31.2%
4thCuraçaoCuraçao88.4%
F
Group F
1stNetherlandsNetherlands75.5%
2ndJapanJapan51%
3rdSwedenSweden55.6%
4thTunisiaTunisia81.8%
G
Group G
1stBelgiumBelgium89.4%
2ndEgyptEgypt63.7%
3rdIranIran50.5%
4thNew ZealandNew Zealand65.1%
H
Group H
1stSpainSpain94.4%
2ndCabo VerdeCabo Verde2.2%
3rdUruguayUruguay7.4%
4thSaudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia19.1%
I
Group I
1stFranceFrance91%
2ndNorwayNorway57.2%
3rdSenegalSenegal58.4%
4thIraqIraq88.2%
J
Group J
1stArgentinaArgentina93.6%
2ndAustriaAustria61.3%
3rdAlgeriaAlgeria57.3%
4thJordanJordan83.1%
K
Group K
1stColombiaColombia10.5%
2ndPortugalPortugal10.3%
3rdDR CongoDR Congo46.7%
4thUzbekistanUzbekistan51.3%
L
Group L
1stEnglandEngland84.6%
2ndCroatiaCroatia72.9%
3rdGhanaGhana66.7%
4thPanamaPanama76.7%
≥60% predicted 30-60% <30% (surprising)
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